Carbon Budget Calculator

The Paris Agreement state that the global temperature increase should be kept well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and that efforts should be pursued to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The IPCC the IPCC AR6 WGI report state that the budget to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels with a 66% probability is 400 GtCO2. (1 GtCO2 = 1 billion tonnes (metric tons) CO2.) To make sure that the carbon budget is not overrun, net zero emissions must be achieved before the budget runs out. The present fossil emissions are calculated as an average of 2019, 2020, and 2021, which is 36 GtCO2. Adding net land-use change emissions of 4 GtCO2 results in total global CO2 emissions of 40 GtCO2, which is used as the starting point of the diagrams below (GCP 2021). Not a lot has happened with regard to emission reductions since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015. How much harder will it be to meet the Paris Agreement if we wait even more? What is needed to fulfill the agreement?